North America has just released its 2025 Breeding Waterfowl Survey — the biggest moment of the year for U.S. and Canadian hunters. The results shape the next hunting season across an entire continent.

Here in Australia, we barely notice — yet the comparison is impossible to ignore. While NSW, VIC and SA counts are conducted every year in October through December, they are then rushed into trying to set the imminent season starting in March the following year, instead of using it to inform future seasons.

In North America, this year’s count sets next year’s hunting season, more than twelve months ahead of time. Hunters get clear notice, governments plan with confidence, and everyone knows where they stand.

It’s the kind of system Field & Game Australia continues to argue for here at home.

What This Year’s U.S. Surveys Found - The Headline: 34 Million Ducks!

The 2025 survey, carried out by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Canadian partners, and state agencies, estimated 33.98 million breeding ducks across the traditional survey area. That’s virtually unchanged from 33.99 million in 2024, but 4% below the long-term average since 1955.

Conditions for breeding weren’t favourable. May pond counts (surface water assessment) — a key measure of habitat — were estimated at 4.2 million, down 19% from 2024 and 20% below the long-term average. It’s the lowest pond count since 2004. In the Dakotas and Montana, ponds fell by 34%.

Delta Waterfowl’s Waterfowl Programs Director Mike Buxton highlighted the seasonal timing of rainfall had an impact: “Although May’s rains did bring some relief, much of it came too late for early‑nesting ducks. By June, heat and wind had evaporated the gains before they could boost production.”

As Ducks Unlimited Chief Scientist Dr Steve Adair noted: “Waterfowl again demonstrated their adaptability to changing water conditions… these flexible breeding strategies appear to have contributed to decent production last year, which carried over to a similar breeding population this spring.”

The Australian Angle

It’s tempting to see this data as not applicable to Australia - half a world away - but there are real lessons for us.

Yes, their ducks are migratory and breed in a continental-scale spring event, while ours are nomadic and respond opportunistically to rainfall. But the principles are the same: good years in one region drive populations in another. Just as the Eyre Basin can later boost Victoria and New South Wales, North Americans watch how prairie drought pushes ducks north into the Arctic and boreal forests.

Delta Waterfowl’s Dr. Frank Rohwer summed it up bluntly: “Duck production is not likely to be good this year… the best hunting seasons occur in wet years when the fall flight has more young ducks in the migration.” Australian hunters know the same story — when wetlands are full, young birds abound, and hunting the following year improves.

Species-level contrasts are also striking. In the U.S., wigeon and pintail are holding their own, while blue-winged teal have slumped after repeated dry springs. Here, Wood Duck thrive almost anywhere, while Shoveler and Pink-eared Duck crash without shallow, temporary wetlands. Different ducks respond differently — and without monitoring, we’d never know it.

The big take-home? In North America, hunters already know their 2026 framework. In Australia, we often don’t get certainty until weeks before opening. Imagine if the counts completed in October through November this year were used to set the 2027 season, while the 2026 season was already locked in based on last year’s data. Hunters would enjoy the same confidence and fairness North Americans take for granted.

Meanwhile, the results of the US survey remind us that long-term threats — like wetland drainage and grassland loss — remain the biggest challenges.

As Ducks Unlimited CEO Adam Putnam put it: “The continued loss of wetlands and grasslands … is the most significant threat to North America’s waterfowl, and meeting the challenges in this landscape requires strong public policy and broad partnerships.”

The same lesson applies here in Australia. Our own wetlands face ongoing pressures — drainage, competing water use, urban development, and invasive species. If habitat disappears, no amount of regulation will keep duck numbers healthy. Hunters understand this better than anyone, which is why protecting and restoring habitat must remain at the heart of waterfowl management.

Field & Game Australia continues to push for exactly that: a science-based, reliable system that gives hunters early notice, ensures decisions reflect real data, and keeps conservation at the core.

🦆 U.S. vs Aussie Ducks – A Quick Comparison

Not familiar with the North American species list? Here’s how they line up with ducks we know at home:

• Mallard (U.S.) → Pacific Black Duck (Aus): the staple, widespread, and most recognisable bird in the bag.
• Gadwall / Wigeon (U.S.) → Wood Duck (Aus): adaptable and thriving even when conditions are patchy.
• Blue-winged Teal (U.S.) → Australasian Shoveler (Aus): highly dependent on shallow, temporary wetlands — quick to decline in dry years.
• Pintail (U.S.) → Pink-eared Duck (Aus): specialists with unique habits, doing well in some years and vanishing in others.
• Canvasback / Redhead (U.S. divers) → Hardhead (Aus): diving ducks that rely on deeper, more permanent wetlands.

Different continents, different names — but the same story: some ducks thrive in dry spells, others vanish without water. Understanding those differences is key to setting fair, sustainable seasons.

Here’s how those species fared in this year’s U.S. counts: